Tag Archives: Depression

The Expanding Flash Mob Threat…Are You In Condition Yellow? Why Not?

From Jeff Cooper:

  • White: Unaware and unprepared. If attacked in Condition White, the only thing that may save you is the inadequacy or ineptitude of your attacker. When confronted by something nasty, your reaction will probably be “Oh my God! This can’t be happening to me.”
  • Yellow: Relaxed alert. No specific threat situation. Your mindset is that “today could be the day I may have to defend myself”. You are simply aware that the world is a potentially unfriendly place and that you are prepared to defend yourself, if necessary. You use your eyes and ears, and realize that “I may have to shoot today”. You don’t have to be armed in this state, but if you are armed you should be in Condition Yellow. You should always be in Yellow whenever you are in unfamiliar surroundings or among people you don’t know. You can remain in Yellow for long periods, as long as you are able to “Watch your six.” (In aviation 12 o’clock refers to the direction in front of the aircraft’s nose. Six o’clock is the blind spot behind the pilot.) In Yellow, you are “taking in” surrounding information in a relaxed but alert manner, like a continuous 360 degree radar sweep. As Cooper put it, “I might have to shoot.”
  • Orange: Specific alert. Something is not quite right and has your attention. Your radar has picked up a specific alert. You shift your primary focus to determine if there is a threat (but you do not drop your six). Your mindset shifts to “I may have to shoot that person today”, focusing on the specific target which has caused the escalation in alert status. In Condition Orange, you set a mental trigger: “If that person does “X”, I will need to stop them”. Your pistol usually remains holstered in this state. Staying in Orange can be a bit of a mental strain, but you can stay in it for as long as you need to. If the threat proves to be nothing, you shift back to Condition Yellow.
  • Red: Condition Red is fight. Your mental trigger (established back in Condition Orange) has been tripped. “If ‘X’ happens I will shoot that person”.

When it comes to personal security most of us live in Condition White most of our lives. In Condition White before you understand the threat, it is upon you. We live there because for most of our lives, in most of the United States, you could get away with it. It wasn’t dangerous. Well that is starting to change.

JWR,Last Easter weekend, a twitter message went out and in a few hours 20,000 people descended on Surfside Beach, Texas, population about 600. My LEO contacts tell me there were only six officers available. The crowd turned sour towards the locals who did not want them parking or defecating in their yards.Several residents had to stand on their front porches with weapons displayed to keep groups of hundreds from passing through their property. Several rental beach houses were broken into and one contact said the volume of human feces and trash was unbelievable. The roads were impassable for hours, trapping the residents who may have wanted to evacuate.

via Letter Re: The Expanding Flash Mob Threat – SurvivalBlog.com.

Here is the Associated News that confirms that this was basically a “flash mob” event. Imagine that you are at this beach with your wife and children blissfully unaware, in Condition White, and 20,000 hooligans descend upon you and you don’t notice it until your children are terrified. What do you do now?

Start being aware of your surroundings, we do not have the luxury of being blissfully unaware any longer. The hordes have been allowed into the castle walls…they are aching for a fight. Before we give them that fight we have to survive until the rest of us wake up to the threat.

Report: 1 dead, 3 wounded in Texas beach shooting Published April 08, 2012 Associated Press

SURFSIDE BEACH, TEXAS –  Authorities say one person has been killed and three others wounded in a shooting during a packed beach party on the Texas Gulf Coast. Brazoria County Sheriff Charles Wagner told The Facts newspaper that he had no immediate identification of those involved in the shooting at Surfside Beach and no immediate arrests had been made. Wagner says the circumstances were unclear. The Facts said word of mouth about an unauthorized beach party spread on social media, drawing thousands to Surfside Beach, about 40 miles south of Galveston. Surfside Beach officials told The Facts that the party was not permitted nor authorized. The Facts quoted a witness as saying the party began peacefully, but fights broke out and there was heavy drinking and also drug use.

Eventually we will have to take back our world and make it civilized again, till then Condition Yellow it is.

 

Buh Bye British Pound It’s Been Nice Knowing You! Now What?

Here is a snapshot of the last throes of the British Pound as the financial crisis continues…yes continues to wind to it’s terribly gory conclusion. Rumors are flying that tomorrow Germany will announce that they are dropping the Euro as a currency and returning to the Deutschmark. We will see if that rumor plays out. Different large European gold and silver supply houses are shutting down sales because large scale panic buying of both has depleted their supply. Welcome to the new normal where gold looks sensible and everything else is a suckers bet.

Check out the 6 month trend on the pound…weee what a fun ride.

image 

CurrencyShares British Pound Ster. Trst: NYSE:FXB quotes & news – Google Finance

Here is a video you must not miss. Nassim Taleb explains why you should be worried…if you are not. With bonus remarks about how dumb anyone in Business School is right about now.

1000 Point Drop DOW!?! Greeks Burning Greeks! Wall Street Bonuses Out of Control! Time For The Fed To Bailout Europe…Yea Baby Give Me More!

With Obama’s apparent strategy leaning towards exploring every single way to collapse the United States, it isn’t a surprise that we are bailing out Europe. Ah, all the wonderful leftists love to crow about this or that European fashion, ridiculous pensions, life time employment, huge bureaucracies, nanny state, check, check, check, check and check, leftists in the US want all of that! Don’t worry though because it is the rare conservative indeed who will speak out against the “safety net” indeed finding a so-called right wing politician who will admit forthrightly that he intends to cut spending is akin to finding a leftist questioning the idea that someone’s “needs” trumps my freedom. (This makes Conservative NJ Governor Chris Christie a real up and comer and Ron Paul a saint) We are going straight to hell and the goddamn hand basket is in flames! Anyways Zero Hedge as usual is all the way around the story. Really if you aren’t reading Zero Hedge, The Market Ticker ®, Financial Armageddon, Calculated Risk, Dollar Collapse and a few others then all of what is happening is a big ass shock to you. Being surprised is only fun for your birthday.

We are rapidly approaching a point where it simply won’t matter whether the politicians and their needy minions want to cut this or that “safety net”…we have outgrown our ability to pay for all we have promised. As economist Robert Samuelson points out in a recent article we are witnessing the Welfare State’s Death Spiral. And this European Bailout is the sort of dumb move, that will accelerate our final reckoning. What is hilarious and indicative of Obama’s desire to destroy this country is that at the VERY the same time we rushing to adopt all of the sorts of policies that put Europe in that position. Weee!

Well guess what: with about $500 billion in liquidity swaps about to hit the asset side of the ledger (that’s a conservative estimate based on the last time the Fed went full bore on bailing out Europe, and sorry, that European bailout does not come cheap), Excess Reserves (fed liabilities) are about to skyrocket by a comparable amount to match the assets. And here is the double whammy: $500 billion in new excess reserves earning 0.25% for holder banks, means US banks are about to earn an additional $1.25 billion a year risk-free courtesy of US taxpayers, who already are getting the shaft by paying more for gas thanks to the privilege of having bailed out Europe and drowned the world in new and unprecedented gobs of excess liquidity! Simply stated, the Greek “bailout” is a roundabout way of funneling over another extra billion to US banks! Direct cost to US taxpayers to bailout Europe via IMF: $50 billion; Indirect cost to fund incremental bank excess reserves: $1.25 billion; The joy of being raped daily by the Fed-Wall Street complex and assuring another year of record Wall Street bonuses: priceless. Some things money can’t buy. For everything else there are trillions in Federal Reserve Notes appearing each and every day out of thin air. Fed Pretends It Is Preparing To Soak Up Excess Reserves, Even As Currency Swaps Are Sure To Add About $500 Billion To Fed’s Assets | zero hedge (emphasis mine)

Sarah Para Bellum Cleaning Up Messes Corrupt O Crats Leave Behind!

Great Cartoon!

Sarah Para Bellum  

Move over, Rosie the Riveter. Here comes Sarah, and it’s not just rivets she’s packing. –All Right Magazine

No matter how you feel about Alaska’s former governor, everyone has an opinion. Today, America is arguably in peril from forces potentially as destructive as Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. During WWII Rosie the Riveter kept ’em flying, and today when most of our "conservative" leaders are majoring in hand-wringing, the girls are stepping up. –Dale

Out of Order the Blog: Sarah Para Bellum

Cheery Thought For Today! Iceland Shrinks 8% as Prices Increase 11% in Deepest Recession! Hey Deflationistas Notice That Economy Is Shrinking While Prices Sky-Rocket…!

Aren’t prices supposed to go down when you have a recession? Well yea unless you have devalued your currency so much that no one takes the “promise” of its value seriously. And when your currency is not attached to any rational measure of value promises is all you will get from the Government. Promises from governments have always worked out so well for those who have believed in them.

Well America watch carefully to see the predicament Iceland finds itself in because that is where we are heading…fun fun fun till the daddy (China, Japan and other buyers of US debt) takes the T-Bird (they stop buying our promises)…away. The fun is just beginning not ending. Green shoots indeed! Those clowns who are selling that crap should be prosecuted and jailed. Back in the day they would be tarred and feathered…for killing the light of the world (United States) the penalty should start there.

Worst Recession

Iceland’s economy will shrink 8.5 percent this year and consumer prices will climb 11.7 percent, both the worst performances among the world’s 33 advanced economies, according to the IMF’s latest forecasts. As the rest of the world begins to recover, Iceland’s recession will stretch into next year, with the economy contracting 2 percent, more than any developed nation except Ireland. Iceland Shrinks 8% as Prices Increase 11% in Deepest Recession – Bloomberg.com

Neat that Central Banks the world over are starting to short the dollar…this is going to leave a mark. From a Barclay’s report:

No one wants to be caught holding too many dollars, and this rising reluctance is increasing pressure on the USD. This is an obvious USD negative, but it is also means that the ECB and the EUR are caught between a rock and a hard place. The capital flows into the EUR have very little to do with any euro area cyclical dynamism. If the ECB were the BoC, it would label the current EUR appreciation as undesirable “type 2” flows driven by capital flows that do not reflect fundamentals. However, as anyone who has been to the doctor knows, getting a diagnosis is not quite the same as being cured.

Hat Tip Zero Hedge where some of the finest reporting on the economy is going on right now.

Senator Johnny Isakson, Can You Name His Party? Buffoons On Parade…

Just so we are clear about what is bothering many regular citizens in this country. In my business if something doesn’t work I don’t continue to throw money at it. Used to be that we could tell who the Republicans and Democrats were by where they stood on throwing money towards problems. Read the snippet below and try to apply that same reasoning to the problem and you will probably guess this buffoon is a Democrat…you would be wrong.

Johnny Isakson’s Position Statement on the Economy
As our nation continues to struggle through the current economic crisis it is important to stay focused on the recovery aspects. I believe the key to returning stability to the economy lies within the housing market. We must find a way to keep people in their homes, stabilize foreclosures and return consumer confidence to the marketplace. Once stability comes back to the housing market, you will see investors and small business begin to reinvesting in job creating activities, which will put hard-working Americans back to work. I will leave no stone unturned in pushing to address the housing market as the catalyst for turning around our entire economy. Our nation has always demonstrated a strong resiliency and I am confident we will once again bounce back stronger than ever, where hard-working Americans are at the front lines of economic prosperity.

Tax Credits for Homebuyers

I believe our economic problems start with the housing market and that we must restore the house market if we are going to restore our economy. To draw buyers back to the market, I have introduced a proposal to invigorate housing demand and to boost the economy by expanding the first-time homebuyer tax credit passed by Congress earlier year.

Specifically, my legislation would increase the maximum amount of the credit from $8,000 to $15,000 and expand the current tax credit so that it applies to any buyer of any home, not just first-time buyers. My legislation also would eliminate the income caps of $75,000 for an individual and $150,000 for a couple under the current tax credit so that there is no income limit for eligibility. Finally, the legislation would extend the tax credit for one year from date of enactment and would still allow homebuyers to claim the credit on their 2009 tax return for purchases made in 2010. Johnny Isakson, United States Senator

Senator Isakson identifies the problem as foreclosures when in reality that is a symptom. It is exactly the result of his easy money, no penalty for failure policies, policies that he would like to double down on. Folks walk away from houses when they don’t have a lot of skin in the game. If I don’t put any money down plus I get tax credits for playing House Casino and additionally it is official policy that it wasn’t my fault and no penalty should occur if I walk away…well guess what? I will walk away when it becomes non-profitable. But since when has it been a Republican value that we take money from those who earn it to give to those who gamble it? Since when is it considered prudent to play the housing market like penny stocks? When did Republicans sign on to that nonsense…?

One of the biggest problems facing the American people today is an illiquid housing market, a decline in their equity, a decline in their net worth and a depression in the housing market that we are obligated to correct if we possibly can. Today, in the United States, one in two sales made every day is a short sale or a foreclosure. That is an unhealthy market, and it is continuing to precipitate a downward spiral in values, loss of equity by the American people and a protracted, difficult economic time for our country.

“We are obligated to correct”…who is this we Kemo Sabe? You got some dumb folks who love throwing good money after bad hiding in your pockets? This bubble you idiotic politicians have created may be the death of our financial system. It has already brought down a tremendous number of banks who thought gambling with other peoples money was a good idea. You not satisfied yet? Want to blow that bubble up one more time?

How can we counter “progressive” Democrats when Republicans are proposing essentially the same dumb programs? Let me clue you in Senator Isakson.

The housing market NEEDS to run out all these get rich quick schemers. And it needs to run out all those folks who did not use the same sort of prudence those of us who are not in trouble used when buying our houses. There needs to be a financial bar that folks need to be able to step over. There have to be penalties for those who fail to uphold their commitments to paying their bills.

Sorry this is harsh but it is reality. You seem to have no problem at all using my money to bail out folks whose decision making skills rival my fish. I am offended by this since my money does not grow on trees. Senator some of us have to actually work for our money…we would appreciate it if you didn’t throw it away.

Republicans heal thyselves!

China investigates US auto, chicken imports…Tit For Tat!

This is how depressions are turned into Great Depressions…we slap a tariff on Tires, they slap a tariff on auto imports, and we all go down the tubes together!

China investigates US auto, chicken imports By GILLIAN WONG BEIJING

China is launching antidumping investigations into imported U.S. auto and chicken products, the government said Sunday, adding to a string of trade disputes with Washington including a recent decision to raise tariffs on Chinese-made tires.

The Commerce Ministry said it would look into complaints that American auto and chicken products are being dumped into the Chinese market or are benefiting from subsidies. The ministry said there are concerns the U.S. imports have "dealt a blow to domestic industries."

The ministry statement did not elaborate on the complaints or how the investigation would proceed.

Washington and Beijing have recently traded accusations of protectionism, which they agree will hurt efforts to end the global economic crisis.

The U.S. and China, the world’s largest and third-largest economies, have been engaged in a series of battles over access to each other’s markets for goods such as tires, steel pipe, music and movies.

President Barack Obama on Friday approved new tariffs on all car and light truck tires coming into the U.S. from China, a move Beijing condemned as protectionist and a violation of global trade rules.

The Commerce Ministry’s statement said China remained firmly opposed to protectionism.

"Since the financial crisis, China’s actions have proven this point," it said. "China is willing to work with countries around the world to act together to promote the quick recovery of the world economy." China investigates US auto, chicken imports – BusinessWeek

Hope and Change…Record Unemployment in 8 States! Weeeeee isn’t this fun? Thanks a bunch Obama Voters!

In Obama’s defense "Obama said The US Economy is not the economy he knew for 20 years.”

8 states see record unemployment rates in May

WASHINGTON (AP) — The unemployment rates in eight states hit record-highs last month and only two — Nebraska and Vermont — did not report increases.

The Labor Department says 48 states and the District of Columbia saw employment conditions deteriorate last month. The fallout from the longest recession since World War II, was the worst in Michigan. Its unemployment rate rose to 14.1 percent. 8 states see record unemployment rates in May – Yahoo! Finance

Green Shoots? Sure take a look at these charts from Vox’s post a Tale of Two Depressions. (Hat tip Atlantic’s Derek Thompson) Let’s just ignore the silly idea that more debt will lead us out of this disaster and concentrate on the disaster in the making. We are well and truly screwed…

World Industrial Output Compare and Contrast Depressions World Stock Markets Compare and Contrast Depressions
Volume of World Trade Compare and Contrast Depressions Central Bank Discount Rates Compare and Contrast Depressions

 

Industrial output, four big Europeans, then and now

Industrial output, four big Europeans, then and now

Yea things are looking FABULOUS! Green Shoots popping up all over the place…

About the idea that spending money will fix this…err no. If you want to find out what is going to happen and if you really want to know how to fix this then you have to listen to those folks who called this disaster in the first place. Start with Peter Schiff then move to this which is an essential piece of the puzzle. Why listen to folks whose premises about the economy have been wrong all along? To predict the future in economics you have to at least prove that you were successful in the past. Why listen to economists who were predicting nonsense like this:

February 28, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 12,268

March 13th, 2007 – Henry Paulson: “the fallout in subprime mortgages is "going to be painful to some lenders, but it is largely contained."
March 28th, 2007 – Ben Bernanke: "At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,"

March 30, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 12,354

April 20th, 2007 – Paulson: "I don’t see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained." , "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom,"

April 30, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 13,063

May 17th, 2007 – Bernanke: “While rising delinquencies and foreclosures will continue to weigh heavily on the housing market this year, it will not cripple the U.S.”

May 31, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 13,627

June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: (the subprime fallout) “will not affect the economy overall.”
July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime."
August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: "I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,"
October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."

December 31, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 13,265
January 31, 2008 – Dow Jones @ 12,650

February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) "is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient."

Let’s jump ahead since my head will explode if I have to read too much of these clowns bullshit. Keep in mind that this was the consensus opinion of mainstream Keynesian economists.

Where did they end up?

August 10th, 2008 – Paulson: “We have no plans to insert money into either of those two institutions.” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)
September 8th, 2008 – Fannie and Freddie nationalized. The taxpayer is on the hook for an estimated 1 – 1.5 trillion dollars. Over 5 trillion is added to the nation’s balance sheet.

September 16th, 2008 – $85 Billion AIG Bailout “Loan”

September 19th, 2008 – $700 Billion Bailout Plan Announced
September 19th, 2008 – Paulson: "We’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars – this needs to be big enough to make a real difference and get at the heart of the problem," he said. "This is the way we stabilize the system."
September 19th, 2008 – Bernanke: "most severe financial crisis" in the post-World War II era. Investment banks are seeing "tremendous runs on their cash," Bernanke said. "Without action, they will fail soon."
September 21st, 2008 – Paulson: "The credit markets are still very fragile right now and frozen", "We need to deal with this and deal with it quickly.", "The financial security of all Americans … depends on our ability to restore our financial institutions to a sound footing."
September 23rd, 2008 – Paulson: "We must [enact a program quickly] in order to avoid a continuing series of financial institution failures and frozen credit markets that threaten American families’ financial well-being, the viability of businesses, both small and large, and the very health of our economy,"
September 23rd, 2008 – Bernanke: "My interest is solely for the strength and recovery of the U.S. economy,"

October 31, 2008 – Dow Jones @ 9,337
March 31, 2009 – Dow Jones @ 7,609

Great Job Guys! Yea let’s listen to folks like these two clowns. Well Hope and Changey exchanged Tim Geitner for Paulson at the Treasury…so now we are being led by a person who not only has the same corrupt philosophy as Paulson but who is also a tax cheat. Yea that is a good idea. And yes both of them share the same statist philosophy.

Now explain to me how anyone believes that Obama is trying to do anything except SINK THIS COUNTRY!

German Chancellor Merkel Speaks Out Against the Fed’s Policy of Loose Money…WOW! A Leader Speaks The Truth?

German Chancellor Merkel spoke out against the policy of the Central Banks of the United States (Federal Reserve), Great Britain and the EU. When a German Chancellor speaks out against the policies of the Central Bank’s of the world we would be wise to listen.

Aides say Ms Merkel’s concern about the expanding remits of the Fed and the Bank of England is genuine. She does not blame the implosion of the subprime mortgage market for the economic crisis. She does not see securitisation as the culprit. Rather, she thinks the loosening of monetary policy under Alan Greenspan’s Fed chairmanship fuelled the creation of asset price bubbles and encouraged excessive leverage within and beyond the financial sector.

This risky policy, she thinks, was supported by a US government that also rejected any calls – including from Germany when Berlin was chairing the Group of Eight industrial nations in 2007 – for tighter regulation of financial markets. Ms Merkel "sees the huge amounts of liquidity being pumped into financial systems with some concern. She is worried that some of the unconventional action being deployed by central banks cannot be easily reversed," says one confidant. "We do not want to be fuelling a new bubble. Another crisis like this one and the west will be wiped out." FT.com / UK – Merkel makes a mark

Why is she so worried about loosening of the monetary policy under the Fed? INFLATION! The Germans have an intimate knowledge of what happens when inflation ravages a country.

The Fed’s actions are driven by exactly the same sort of short range thinking that has destroyed specific sectors of the US economy. GM signs a labor agreement 50 years ago because they didn’t wonder what might happen down the road if they had some rough spots. And now a 100 year old company is taken over by the Government. Short Range Thinking…will be the death of us.

Sometimes you simply have to accept some pain to avoid the death blow. GM should have said no then and dealt with the inevitable strikes then and they would be alive now. We should have never allowed the Government to remove the shackles we had around it in the form of our currency being backed by gold. At the point we allowed that, it was irresistible that the Government would inflate its way out of debts…and one day destroy this country. We as a people demanded more and more from the Government and corrupt politicians who knew better were more than willing to give it to us. We demanded that taxes NOT be raised and corrupt politicians were only too willing to not raise taxes. Well now the butchers bill has come due.

There is no free lunch.

Darn Those Consumers Why Aren’t They Running Up the Credit Cards Like They Used To? Hmmm…

That sure is a steep drop for an economy with only 8.9% of the populace unemployed. Could the Government be fudging the unemployment numbers?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. consumer borrowing fell more than expected in March, plunging a record $11.1 billion, a Federal Reserve report showed Thursday.

March consumer credit fell at an annual rate of 5.2% to a total of $2.55 trillion. This was the biggest percentage drop since December 1990.

February’s decrease was revised to $8.1 billion from an originally reported $7.5 billion drop.

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a $3.5 billion drop in consumer borrowing for March.

Non-revolving credit, which includes closed-end loans for big-ticket items like cars, boats, college education and holidays, dropped $5.7 billion, or at a 4.2% rate, to $1.6 trillion.

Revolving credit, made up of credit and charge cards, fell $5.4 billion, or at a 6.8% rate, to $946 billion in March. This compared with a revised $9.7 billion drop in February.  Consumer credit falls a record $11.1 billion in March – May. 7, 2009

After all if only 8.9% of the folks are unemployed like the Government says than why is this happening? Could the Government be full of shit about the unemployment numbers? Nah, the Government never lies. They would never change the way unemployment is calculated to make themselves look better.

Well let me just say that if you are interested in the economy and you don’t have a subscription to John Williams website then you are missing the real story.

Here is a taste and here is the link to the site, Shadow Stats.

JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS FLASH UPDATE May 8, 2009 __________ Better-Than-Expected April Jobs Report Had A Bad Odor to It 539,000 Jobs Loss was 605,000 Net of Revisions, 491,000 Net of CSFB Birth-Death Bias Showed Unusual Jump in April __________ PLEASE NOTE:

The next planned Flash Update will follow the release of the April retail sales report on Wednesday, May 13th, with a subsequent update following the April CPI report on Friday, May 15th. – Best wishes to all, John Williams CBS news radio this morning (May 8th) was headlining and hyping a likely improvement in the jobs picture, well before the April employment report was released. Where the White House formally received the employment detail after the markets closed on Thursday (and probably had a good sense of the number a week before), today’s reporting looked very much like an orchestrated event. News organizations usually are pretty conservative about touting market-moving reports in advance of a release.

Continuing a pattern seen in the last seven monthly payroll reports, today’s estimates included negative revisions to the previously-report February and March payroll changes (see the Reporting/Market Focus in the most recent SGS Newsletter No. 50, for further background on this indication of flawed reporting), but the Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias (CSFB) reversed in April (see below). There also was an unusual surge in birth-death modeling bias. Separately, unusual seasonal adjustments were apparent in the unemployment report, which, unlike the payroll reporting, was exactly as bad as expected by consensus forecasts.