Larry Kudlow, as reported by Zero Hedge, is claiming on CNBC that earnings are Q2 earnings are MUCH better than Q1 earnings. Larry has a history of getting it wrong. Co-incidentally we have this commentary on Bloomberg by David Pauly revealing some of the dirty little secrets of the Wall Street analysts. Here are some snippets of Wall Street Analysts Keep Telling Big Earnings Lie.
At a time when the financial industry’s credibility is at an all-time low, you would think Wall Street’s finest would break their necks providing transparency.
Not so. Stock analysts continue to promote corporate earnings lies, insisting that net income isn’t really what investors need to know.
Instead, their earnings estimates ignore often huge expenditures that can’t help but affect a company’s health.
In analystspeak, Intel Corp. wasn’t hit with a $1.45 billion fine from the European Union in the second quarter for anticompetitive practices.
After setting aside funds to cover the fine, which Intel is appealing, the semiconductor-maker had a quarterly loss of $398 million, or 7 cents a share. Disregarding the fine altogether, analysts maintain the company earned 18 cents a share, beating their average estimate of 8 cents.
As Wall Street tells it, the employee stock options Google Inc. granted in the second quarter didn’t cost its shareholders $293 million.
Google, according to generally accepted accounting principles, earned $1.48 billion, or $4.66 a share, in the period. Not enough for Wall Street, which prefers to say the company earned $5.36 a share, leaving out the cost of stock options.
Now Larry Kudlow is not a Wall Street analyst but he does play like he is an economist. So is Larry Kudlow credible? Is ANYONE credible when discussing the economy? Larry Kudlow has a history of being wrong, not a little wrong but wrong as in missing HUGE movements in the economy. So explain again why does anyone listen to this guy anymore?
Here are some examples of Larry getting it spectacularly wrong.
- September 20, 2007 As reported in this morning’s Wall Street Journal, credit markets have revived following the Fed move. Bond sales are resuming. Yields on corporate bonds and loans have moved lower. The commercial paper market is improving. The LIBOR rate has dropped by 35 basis points.
Confidence is returning.
- July 25, 2008 If Things Are So Bad . . .If the economy is in recession, why are business durable-goods orders and shipments booming? Non-defense capital goods (capex) excluding aircraft rose 1.4 percent in June, or 19 percent at an annual rate over the last three months. Capex shipments rose 0.7 percent in June, or 8 percent annualized over the last three months. Business looks pretty healthy to me. And non-financial profits in the second quarter are rising 12 percent. Even including depressed bank earnings, positive surprises for profits are well outstripping negative surprises.And if we are in a housing depression, why have existing home sales in the hard-hit West (think California, Arizona, and Nevada) increased four straight months (plus 12 percent)? And why are they up 17 percent from the low in October? More important, nationwide median existing home prices have increased four straight months, from $196,000 to $215,000. That’s a 10 percent gain. (Two months later a crisis so huge that we must bailout billionairs occurs?!?!)
On July 28, 2008 the intrepid economist from the National Review could be found calling the bottom of the housing market. Which is hilarious because the median home price at the end of Quarter 2 2008 according to National Association of REALTORS® was $206,000 as of Quarter 1 2009 we are at $169,000 and no one except dangerous folks like Larry and other assorted Government Sponsored news media are calling the bottom yet. Nice work Larry!
- July 28, 2008 The Media Are Missing the Housing Bottom [Larry Kudlow]Media reports painted a pessimistic picture of today’s release on existing home sales, which fell 15 percent from a year ago and recorded higher inventories. But inside the report was an awful lot of very good new news, which appear to be pointing to a bottom in the housing problem; in fact, maybe the tiniest beginnings of a recovery.For example, the median existing home price has increased four consecutive months and is up 10 percent since February. Yes, it’s down 6 percent over the past year. But the monthly numbers show a gradual rebound. Actually, this median home price is $215,000 in June, compared to $196,000 last winter.
Then on September 3rd in 2008 he doubles down on idiocy or propaganda, use whichever explanation feels better to you, with this post.
- The Contrary View Apart from presidential politics, oil’s plunge toward $100 deepens the tax-cut effect and brightens the economic outlook across-the-board. There is so much gloom and doom and pessimism in investment circles that now’s a great time to take a contrary view. (emphasis mine)Lower oil solves consumer purchasing power. And it will make it much easier for people to pay their mortgages on time. That in turn helps solve the credit crunch, because on-time payments enhance the value of all that mortgage-related bond-market paper held in portfolios.The oil tax cut also will help corporate profits as input price pressures recede, thus bringing costs into better alignment with prices. Productivity, which is trending around 3 percent, remains strong. That’s a big growth factor.
Credit spreads are too wide, but don’t forget that interest-rate levels everywhere are historically low. The level of bank loans is stable. Meanwhile, commercial paper issuance has been rising lately. Economist Art Laffer points out that 10 percent M1 growth over the last three months is a harbinger of stronger money demand, a good sign for economic growth.
So then why does Mr.Kudlow still have any credibility? Is everyone in DC and New York engaged in a huge rip off of the rubes in the rest of the country? Exactly when do we pull out the pitchforks and make a stab at fixing this crap? CNBC Is Now Flagrantly Misrepresenting Reality | zero hedge
Back in John Adams day they used to Tar and Feather those who the mob believed were dishonest. Now we have PROOF of dishonesty…when do we start?